End of Season Rafa debate

Posted by Vulmea.

Been waiting for you layabouts to post a thread.

Most of the other threads are disolving into Rafa debates and what happens next. There’s probably an existing thread or six on Rafa but I’d thought I’d start this off with a few bits of reality.

To put things in context, Rafa inherited a team which wasn’t good enough - which scraped 4th under Houllier due to Gerrard performing miracles and subsequently finished 5th in his first season. He also inherited a squad lacking balance crammed with central midfielders, goalkeepers, and with strikers playing wide, centre halfs playing at full back and midfielders playing centreback. It was also a team built to defend deep and hoof the ball long with few gifted technical players. No less than 11 players were in the last year of their contracts and worth nothing even if he could find anybody to buy them. Many were on massive wages which meant they were happy to see out their contracts in the stiffs.

So he had to build from a very poor base, a team in decline. The reserves finished last in their league and the U-18’s next to last. Indicating that there was little to nothing coming through.

He arrived at the end of a season which had seen Arsenal topple United and go unbeaten all season and saw Chelsea finish 2nd having spent over £100 million of Roman’s gangster cash. Leaving the juggernaut which had been United a lowly 3rd. The gulf between the big three and the rest was enormous. There was no top 4. Lest we forget Newcastle and Leeds had recently qualified ahead of Liverpool for the champs league and Everton were to follow.

So on what criteria do we judge him? Coaching? Tactical ability? Transfer dealings? Results? Personality?

Unlike United, Chelsea and even Arsenal he has never had the option to simply go and buy who and what he needed. He has not yet enjoyed the same position as Wenger being allowed to develop young talent through the ranks. More than half of the arsenal squad have been with arsenal since before Rafa arrived at Liverpool. United enjoy similar longevity. Both United and Arsenal have been building on positions of strength since the mid 90’s. We haven’t. The other thing to remember in this, is that the other top teams are investing as much if not more than us each year. The implication is that we are asking rafa to spend roughly the same and at the same time narrow the gap whilst buying more players at an average lower cost. It doesn’t make sense but that is what is being demanded. He is tasked with improving the squad and achieving results

Have his results been acceptable whilst developing the club? 5th, 3rd, 3rd and 4th in the League. 1 FA cup (including beating Man United and Chelsea en route), 1 league cup final, 1 champions league, another champions league final and 1 champions league semi final. That achieved with the 3rd most expensively assembled team in the english premier league and probably the 4th best team. I’d say he has delivered what could be expected.

This year’s league position has been a disapointment because rather than push on we look to have gone backwards. However in the league this season to date we have lost just 4 games. We are just 11 points off the top. The implication therefore is that at worst his buys have been of an adequate quality and his squad building has been successful.

We now have a balanced squad with 22+ decent players and cover in every position. We are in a position were we can look to spend big money on individual players.

Those suggesting that Rafa should have bought one player instead of three in the past are missing the point. The season we took on Bellamy, Pennant et al we finshed third and reached the champions league final. Whatever you think of his buys he achievements justified his approach.

At the start of every season he and we have looked at the squad as not good enough. Year on year it has improved.

It also ignores the fact that before the start of each season everybody has been screaming that we needed to improve in three or four positions and Rafa did exactly that. Complaining about it afterwards and with hindsight saying he should have spent it all on one player is hypocrisy of the highest order. He has built slowly but he has, as is his way, done so meticulously. Any of the likes of Pennant, Bellamy could have blossomed and become top quality players, they haven’t we move on.

In addition to the first team our reserves have steadily improved their position. This year they have won the reserve league north and next week play the play-off final at Anfield to decide who wins the overall reserve title. Every season we have seen reserve players given an opportunity in the first team. None have yet made the breakthrough although we have recouped 2.5 million in sales. You would have to say the reserves look to be much improved. However the stated goal of the reserve team is not on field success but bringing players through into the first team. This still hasn’t happened despite promising displays by Plessis. The fact the reserves are so much better however must mean the chances are dramatically improved.

Our U-18’s have twice won the FA youth cup under Rafa/Heighway with teams made up of both players from Melwood and the academy. However this season has seen major upheaval with rumours that many of the young age group coaches will be sacked and a promising season imploding midway through with talk of internal strife between old school and new methods. It all looked good however when we beat FA youth cup favourites Arsenal. Its degenerated into coaches shouting different instructions to players from the sidelines and poor team performances. It will be resolved this summer but what the fall out will be for local talent I do not know. If we follow the Arsenal model then the soul of the club will disapear almost completely.

On the coaching front he did make a number of silk purses - Traore and Warnock were both worth nothing - he made 3.5 million by improving them as players. Carragher was an average fullback he became one of the best centre backs in the Prem. Sami was on his last legs 4 years ago he has been a more than decent player under Rafa despite his obvious limitations for 4 seasons. On the negative side he hasn’t shown himself to be a great striking coach until Torres and you are left wondering whether thats because of or despite Rafa - Baros, Pongolle, Le Tallec, Cisse, Bellamy, Morientes, Gonzalez……..

I think Rafa plays players generally in their correct positions, square pegs in square holes. Tactically he is excellent in europe, where draws are generally far better than in the premier league. I honestly think that is his achilles heel. Draws are not good enough in the Prem. However I also think his tactics have largely been dicated by the players at his disposal. The loss of Agger has been huge. We have no pace or mobility at the back. We cannot compress the play when attacking for fear of getting caught on the break - so our forwards become isolated. I dont think it coincidental that since Skrtel arrived and settled that we’ve improved. I’m also sure Rafa didn’t want to use Skrtel as much a he has.

If Skrtel and Agger can stay fit and rafa can bring in pacey fullbacks then I think many draws could become wins and that would see us close the gap still further. Add to that a more consistent wide player or a world class second striker or both and I think we would have enough to challenge next year under Rafa. Rafa will know this better than any of us. He has spent 4 seasons getting us to a position where small changes in personal from good to very good could make the difference. He may be stubborn but he isn’t stupid.

Some stats to think about

Rafa inherited a squad worth approximately £100 million. He has spent around £150 million and recouped around £70 million. His net spend is therefore £80 million. A conservative estimate would value our squad at about £180 million. The least he has done financially is break even.

He has brought in 48 players. But his transfer dealing can be broken into three types - 17 potential ( Antwi, Hobbs etc) worth in total about £4/5 million, 15 opportunity (Josemi, Gonzalez etc) worth approximately £10 million and 16 genuine targets (> £2.5 mil. Morientes, Alonso, Garcia, Bellamy, Pennant, Babel, Benayoun, Torres, Kuyt, Crouch, Lucas, Reina, Sissoko, Agger, Skrtel, Mascherano) worth a whopping 135-140 million.

As far as I’m concerned only 2 his target buys have been poor Morientes and Kuyt. Not that I dont like Kuyt but I dont think we’d get back what we paid for him. The rest have as a minimum held their price and been useful players for us. The worst they can be accused of is slowing down our development but most that have been sold including Bellamy were sold for more than they were bought for. They were decent players but not good enough to take us where we want to be. Stepping stones to developing the squad. 2 out of 16 and none to rival the likes of Veron , Schevchenko, Jeffers.

Some comparisons based on market rates etc.

2004 Squad value (£m) Position 2008 Squad value (£m) Net spend Position

Arsenal 250 1st 206 £-5 million 3rd
United 235 3rd 275 £70 million 1st =
Chelsea 235 2nd 335 £200 million 1st =
Liverpool 100 4th 180 £80 milion 4th

For me these last set of stats say it all - what exactly is Benitez expected to deliver? And if not Benitez then who? My views on rafa’s motivational abilities, being over cautious, over thinking etc are well documented but nevertheless the bloke has achieved remarkable results with what he has.